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Good Morning Newsletter

Wednesday, October 15

👋 Good morning!

After a relief rally Monday, stocks spent most of the day in the green on Tuesday before wobbling near close on more China uncertainty. China's retaliation against US-Korean shipping units and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments about how China wants to "pull everybody else down" muted hopes that the unpleasant market moment was over.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Tuesday down 0.2%, the Dow (^DJI) up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) down 0.8%.

What we’re watching


🤝 Walmart makes a ChatGPT deal:

OpenAI has made yet another deal — this time with Walmart. Fresh off a suite of deals with AI infrastructure providers, this new deal isn't another AI plumbing play to add compute but rather something on the client side — something which AI investors have been wanting. Walmart's partnership will allow customers to use ChatGPT to shop via its platforms, checking out on the Walmart and Sam's Club websites conversationally. In the place of a big list of search results will be a fresh AI experience. Eyes will be on this partnership to see if customers want it, how it works, whether any problems are endemic to chatbots in general — and the company's specific approaches versus those of Shopify and Etsy, which are also piloting integrations.

⚠️ Powell eyes labor market:

We — and the Fed — may not have any government data to assess the economy amid the shutdown. But we do have fresh remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who noted on Tuesday that the "downside risks to employment appear to have risen" using data that is on hand, like state unemployment claims and the ADP print, which has been promoted to the varsity spot until the official jobs report returns. Though Powell's remarks did little to move the CME's FedWatch barometer, which shows the futures market giving the Fed over a 95% chance of cutting rates by a quarter point on Oct. 29, the chair's dovish tone served to add more anticipation to the September jobs report, whenever it comes. (Initially scheduled for Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index for October will come on Oct. 24, even amid the shutdown, as it's needed to calculate Social Security payment increases.)

💰 Big banks rake it in:

Earnings season started strong on Tuesday, with massive double-digit profit growth from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that surpassed expectations. Dealmaking was both companies' brightest spot for the third quarter, with Goldman seeing a 42% revenue increase from its investment banking division from a year ago. These results, and the optimistic messaging around dealmaking, suggest that the market's uncertainty and flagging economic sentiment is doing little to stop hands from being shaken, corporate bonds being sold, and companies going public. More big banks will report on Wednesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley leading the charge.

📈 Buying the dip paid off again:

With stocks rising Monday and then for most of Tuesday — with the S&P 500 clawing its way back toward 6,700 — the "buy the dip" crowd earned yet another win after Friday's China tariff scare followed a familiar pattern, charted by tough talk, a market reaction, calm talk, and a rebound. And as investors get used to the machinations of President Trump's "Art of the International Trade Deal," there's little sign that investors will leave the playbook behind. But just as markets thought perhaps we'd move on, Tuesday afternoon's China tensions pulled them back. And now, once again, markets await comforting words from the president.

📆 Wednesday's calendar:

Besides Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), we'll get quarterly results from PNC (PNC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Progressive (PGR), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), and United Airlines (UAL). On the economic side, the Fed's Beige Book will provide economic anecdotes from the Fed's various branches around the country.

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What we're reading


₿ China's retaliation cements a bitcoin reset

Today's Takeaway is by **Hamza Shaban, Senior Reporter.**

Not even Fed Chair Jerome Powell could lift bitcoin out of the red.

Following historic losses, triggered by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, cryptocurrency investors have tried to regain their footing. But it's been a rough slog.

Riding on the winds of a booming stock market and the prevailing sense that more rate cuts will fuel an extended rally, bitcoin recently topped the charts and set itself up for a historically strong October. Even accounting for the sharp losses in recent days, the digital currency is up more than 20% for the year, outpacing the gains of the benchmark S&P 500. But geopolitical tensions highlighted how fragile such asset climbs can be.

After months of an upward spiral with higher peaks, investors now confront a reset of speculative bets.

The back-and-forth between Washington and Beijing forced a pause across an array of bullish markets, rattled investors, and reminded Wall Street that, far from being a settled matter, tariffs are still in play as a political weapon and a powerful destabilizer. But bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were hit especially hard.

Part of the plunge in prices has to do with the excitement surrounding crypto investing, which translates to more aggressive wagers using borrowed money. Some investors who wielded leverage on the chance of winning outsized gains were left dangerously exposed when panic selling took hold. A wave of forced liquidations exacerbated the fall.

Bitcoin shed as much as 5% Tuesday, but pared back the losses as investors reacted to Powell implying that another rate cut is possible at the Fed's next meeting in two weeks. Still, the weight of unresolved disputes with China, which worsened just before the closing bell, kept investors from doing much even with a bullish catalyst.

The market-moving influence of a worsening trade conflict makes it harder to declare the sell-off a turning point for crypto or a peak bitcoin moment. If the dispute over critical minerals restrictions leads to a massive escalation in tariffs come Nov. 1, investors — crypto and otherwise — are in for more pain. And bitcoin and its lesser altcoin peers don't have the corporate earnings to cushion a deteriorating macroeconomic picture.

But if trade diplomacy succeeds, then stability could be just around the corner. And the next peak ahead of us.

Watch on Yahoo Finance


Earnings and economic calendar


Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage applications, week ending Oct. 10 (-4.7% previously); Empire Manufacturing, October (0.0 expected, -8.7 previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-on-year, September (0.7% previously); Real average weekly earnings, year-on-year, September (0.4% previously); Federal Reserve Beige Book

Earnings calendar: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Progressive (PGR), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), United Airlines (UAL)

Thursday

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending Oct. 11 (229,000 expected); Continuing claims, week ending Oct. 4 (1.93 million expected, 1.926 previously); Retail sales advance, month-on-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% previously); Producer price index final demand, month-on-month, September (0.3% expected, -0.1% previously); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, October (9 expected, 23.2 previously); Business inventories, August (0.1% expected, 0.2% previously); NAHB housing market index, October (33 expected, 32 previously)

Earnings calendar: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), BNY Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Infosys (INFY), CSX (CSX)

Friday

Economic data: Housing starts, September (1.32 million expected, 1.307 million previously); Building permits, September preliminary reading (1.347 million expected, 1.33 million previously); Import/Export price index, month-on-month, September; Industrial production, month-on-month, September (0.0% expected, 0.1% previously); Capacity utilization, September (77.3% expected, 77.4% previously)

Earnings calendar: American Express (AXP), Truist (TFC), State Street (STT), Ally Financial (ALLY), Comerica (CMA)

***

Today's newsletter was edited by Ethan Wolff-Mann.

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